The name “baccarat” conjures images of smoky casino halls and tuxedo-clad high rollers, but this elegant game is actually quite simple. Unlike poker, which has a variety of betting structures and rules, baccarat only involves placing bets on whether the Player or Banker hand will win, with a tie bet paying eight to one (but carrying a house edge of over 14 percent).
It’s the least intimidating game in the casino for a newcomer or casual gambler, as players simply select either the player or banker hand, then place their bets in front of them. The dealer then deals the cards, with a goal of getting as close to nine as possible on both hands. Face cards count as zero, and aces count as one. The final number is the sum of all the pips on the card: seven for clubs, six for diamonds, and four for spades. A nine is the highest score, but any hand that totals more than nine drops the first digit.
Baccarat’s history is murky, but it quickly gained popularity in the Middle Ages, becoming an important part of the gaming culture in Italy and France. The word baccarat literally means zero in both Italian and French, so it’s not surprising that the game has an enduring allure.
The earliest known written record of baccarat was in the 15th century, when it became popular amongst the nobility and upper classes in both Europe and Asia. The game’s popularity rose further in the 20th century, when it was introduced to casinos in Japan and Hong Kong.
Since then, the game has become a staple of casinos around the world, and is particularly popular in Asia. Its growing popularity is driven by the fact that it is a fast-paced game with a relatively low house edge on both the player and banker bets. In addition, the game is suited to Asian cultural preferences.
Baccarat players often track past results and use them to predict future outcomes, a practice called pattern tracking. Using real-world data, the present study analyzed baccarat player behavior and their beliefs about future outcomes.
We studied 17,970,830 baccarat games played by 6,625 customers over a period of three years. The customer base was selected based on meeting criteria that indicated reasonable engagement with the game: placing more than 70 bets per day suggests substantial activity, and visiting the table on at least three days demonstrates repeated participation over time. Half of these customers were randomly selected for the present analysis.
This study is the first to quantify baccarat players’ adherence to the follow-trend strategy and their underlying beliefs about future outcomes via real casino data. We found that baccarat players tend to follow a particular trend: placing more bets on the winner, and less on the loser. This strategy is likely to lead to irrational decisions when it is not combined with a proper risk-management plan. To mitigate this issue, we recommend that baccarat operators institute a betting limit and encourage customers to play responsibly by setting their own betting limits.