Baccarat is a game of chance that attracts high rollers. It has one of the lowest house edges in a casino, paying out 8-to-1 on player and banker bets, but its low hold percentage is not enough to stop big spenders from wagering huge sums of money. Kerry Packer is a good example, dropping an estimated $20 million during his stay at the Bellagio in 2000. However, even such mega-wagers are unlikely to put a dent in the long-term take that Vegas Strip casinos enjoy from this classic card game of chance and hunches.
During each round, two hands are dealt — the player and banker hand. The values of each hand are then added together, and whichever one comes closest to nine wins. Players can choose to bet on either the player or banker hand, and they may also make a third bet on a tie. There are many betting systems that baccarat players use, including the popular Martingale strategy that involves doubling your bet after every loss and hoping that a win will eventually recoup all past losses. This betting system works best for those with a substantial bankroll and the discipline to stick with it.
Our analysis consistently showed that baccarat gamblers preferred to bet in accordance with the trends that have occurred in previous rounds. This finding supports the hypothesis that baccarat gamblers exhibit positive recency, which is distinct from the gambler’s fallacy and negative recency.
A possible explanation for this effect is the law of small numbers, a cognitive bias in which individuals interpret small samples as representative of larger populations. However, this does not fully explain why positive recency is observed in baccarat, where the outcome of each game is already determined before players place their bets. Other factors may interact with the law of small numbers to promote trend-following behavior in baccarat, such as contextual features that may emphasize past outcomes or deemphasize them.
Another possible influence is cultural, as baccarat is commonly played in China and other East Asian cultures, where it is a prominent form of gambling. Future research should explore how cultural influences may interact with contextual variables to promote baccarat gambling behaviors.